Kerala: COVID : fallacy of less cases, PR push and more

Kerala claims to have conatined spread of COVID ever since the first case( on jan 30) of coronavirus in India were reported from three students of Kerala origin. They had travelled from the Wuhan province of China, which was the point of origin of the disease.

Fast forward to April 11th, Kerala is at 9th position in total number of positive cases at 364. while Maharastra reported 1574 cases.

Now the PR machinery is in full swing claiming victory to communist government and thier favorite controversial CM Piarayi in handling the COVIS spread. Left journalists Sardesai claims it as Kerala model and few muslim journalists who has access to left website washington post are running PR internationally

Now let us look at some of the intriguing facts whch layman won’t understand without lookig at the data , and hence PR machinery is wining

Two worst affected areas of kerala are kasargod and Kannur, both amounts to about 70% of the cases, incidently they are less densly populated. Kasargod has 654 Persons per square Km density while kannur population density is at 852 Persons per square Km. This is a very big factor why People to People transmittion is very less in Kerala. Also thanks to national lock down announced by PM.

2020 coronavirus pandemic in Kerala by district
DistrictActive casesRecoveriesDeathsTotal cases
Alappuzha3205
Ernakulam716124
Idukki19010
Kannur4543189
Kasaragod123240147
Kollam7108
Kottayam0303
Kozhikode87015
Malappuram164020
Palakkad3407
Pathanamthitta88016
Thiruvananthapuram212115
Thrissur58013ne
Wayanad1203
Total (all 14 districts)2281433374

If we observer the top 5 indian states with highest cases, in Maharastra ,Mumbai alone accounts to about 1200 cases out of 1574 cases . mumbai population density is well above 20000 People per Square km.

Delhi with 30,000 people /sq km is no surprise is at the top of the charts.

Rajasthan is no different (https://www.news18.com/news/india/jaipur-tops-chart-with-221-coronavirus-cases-in-rajasthan-2573631.html) 221 coronavirus cases out of 579 reported from Jaipur which is also densly populated

Tablighs contributed to about 85% of cases in Telagana and 90% of the cases in Tamil Nadu. Kerala was least hit by Tablighs as only 300 attended delhi event and out of which only 160 returned , rest stayed back in delhi( https://english.manoramaonline.com/news/kerala/2020/04/01/keralites-tablighi-jamaat-nizamuddin-160-back-home-coronavirus-covid.html)

StatesCases
Maharashtra1574
Tamil Nadu911
Delhi903
Rajasthan553
Telangana473
..
..
Kerala364
Andhra Pradesh363
Gujarat308
Jammu and Kashmir207
Karnataka207
Haryana177
Punjab132
West Bengal116

It is advantage Kerala in terms of low population density of the affected area and no adverse effect from tablighi event.

Having said that Governeent has been working on containing the spread but there is nothing genius is being done in the state. as a matter of fact kerala sought karnataka help in moving patients from Kasargod to Mangalore.

With regards to mortality rate and recovery rate , only few hundred cases won’t be sufficient to claim victory .Let’s wait for a month. Once the hopitals are overloaded, the real test would be that .

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